🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat Telstar 4-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.54 xG and Telstar 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 0.77 against Telstar attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 50% | Draw 31% | Telstar 19%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 54%, Telstar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.67 PPG, Telstar 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights