🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht and Sparta Rotterdam finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.28 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.25 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 36% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 34%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 54%, Sparta Rotterdam 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights