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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Heerenveen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat Heerenveen 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Semi-finals, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.79 xG and Heerenveen 0.84 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heerenveen outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.67 against Heerenveen attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 57% | Draw 29% | Heerenveen 14%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 54%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.72 PPG, Heerenveen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights