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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eredivisie · Semi-finals

Kick-off

Thu 21 May 2026

20:00

Venue

Stadion Galgenwaard

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Utrecht Win

57%

Utrecht

1.76

29%

Draw

3.41

14%

Heerenveen

7.15

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.5%

Home win

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.79

Utrecht xG

Total xG

2.63

0.84

Heerenveen xG

57%
29%
14%
UtrechtDrawHeerenveen

1.76

57%

Home win

3.41

29%

Draw

7.15

14%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.98

49%

BTTS No

2.03

Clean Sheet

43%

Utrecht

2.32

17%

Heerenveen

6.00

Win to Nil

24%

Utrecht

4.09

2%

Heerenveen

42.90

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 6.0 2.5 0.7 0.1
1 12.9 10.8 4.6 1.3 0.3
2 11.5 9.7 4.1 1.1 0.2
3 6.9 5.8 2.4 0.7 0.1
4 3.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.792
λ Away (xG) 0.841
Total xG 2.633
League avg home goals 1.721
League avg away goals 1.307
Utrecht attack strength 1.013
Utrecht defence strength 0.673
Heerenveen attack strength 0.955
Heerenveen defence strength 1.027
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 68 / 68