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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Groningen defy the odds to beat Utrecht 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Utrecht 0-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.84 xG and Groningen 1.13 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 2.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.25 / defence 0.88 against Groningen attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 73% | Draw 15% | Groningen 12%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 60%, Groningen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Groningen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights