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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Utrecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat Excelsior 4-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.98 xG and Excelsior 0.77 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Excelsior attack 0.70 / defence 1.45, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 81% | Draw 13% | Excelsior 6%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 81%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 61%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.86 PPG, Excelsior 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights