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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat AZ Alkmaar 2-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.22 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.76 / defence 0.85 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 36% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 34%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 57%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.64 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights