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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Twente edge out NEC Nijmegen 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Twente beat NEC Nijmegen 3-2 at De Grolsch Veste, Conference League Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.43 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Twente beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.89 / defence 0.76, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Twente 39% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 31%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 60%, NEC Nijmegen 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Twente's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Twente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights