🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Twente's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Grolsch Veste, Regular Season - 20, as Twente and Excelsior drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Twente 1.78 xG and Excelsior 0.97 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Twente fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Excelsior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Twente attack 0.85 / defence 0.84 against Excelsior attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Twente 56% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 20%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Twente 49%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Twente's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Excelsior's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Twente 1.56 PPG, Excelsior 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Twente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights