Telstar vs PEC Zwolle – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Telstar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Telstar and PEC Zwolle meet at BUKO Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Telstar (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at BUKO Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Telstar against 0.70 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Telstar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, PEC Zwolle have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Telstar's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–4 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PEC Zwolle have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Telstar — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 63% and PEC Zwolle 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 60% | PEC Zwolle 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.07 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.053 / defence 1.279 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.863 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.782. Data: 43 Telstar games / 42 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 40% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 37%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Telstar as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Telstar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 60% | PEC Zwolle 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 40% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Telstar 2.07 / PEC Zwolle 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.053 / def 1.279 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.863 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.782 • Poisson stance: Telstar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.97
PEC Zwolle xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at BUKO Stadion.
Where is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Telstar vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 40% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Telstar and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 4W.
What form are Telstar and PEC Zwolle in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Telstar's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.86x) against Telstar's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
40%
2.47
23%
4.37
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Telstar xG
Total xG
4.04
1.97
PEC Zwolle xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.31
24%
BTTS No
4.22
Clean Sheet
14%
7.16
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Telstar and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Telstar and 1.97 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Telstar's recent record stands at 10W 13D 20L from 43 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 21L across 43 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Telstar against 1.02 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 2W 7D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Telstar's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.05 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
PEC Zwolle have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 0-5 on 12 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Telstar
0
Draws
4
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 4-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Telstar, 81% for PEC Zwolle — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Telstar and 76% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Telstar's games and 81% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Telstar's matches and 76% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Telstar and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.