Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Rotterdam face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Sparta Rotterdam's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 47% versus AZ Alkmaar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 55% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.950 / defence 0.977 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.042 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Sparta Rotterdam games / 38 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 53%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | AZ Alkmaar 1.89. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | AZ Alkmaar 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 23% | AZ Alkmaar 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.21 / AZ Alkmaar 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.950 / def 0.977 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.042 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (10 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 6W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.95) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.27
23%
4.28
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.12
1.91
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
3%
28.90
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.91 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 8D 17L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 18W 10D 10L from 38 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.87 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.26 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 47%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 53% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 32%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.