Telstar 0-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Telstar face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Groningen at BUKO Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Telstar stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Telstar have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Groningen have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Telstar at 1.20 PPG versus Groningen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Telstar have won 0, Groningen 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Telstar 0–2 Groningen — a Groningen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 55% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 63% | Groningen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.010 / defence 1.067 | Groningen attack 0.935 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.335. Data: built from Telstar's last 28 games and Groningen's last 62.
Result probabilities: Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.24 | Draw 3.77 | Groningen 3.46. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Telstar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Telstar's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Telstar 80% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 29 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Telstar 1.69 / Groningen 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.010 / def 1.067 | Groningen attack 0.935 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Telstar (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Groningen xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Telstar vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Telstar vs Groningen kick off?
Telstar vs Groningen kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 4 April 2026 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Telstar 0 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Telstar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Groningen part of?
Telstar vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 45% chance of winning, Groningen a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Telstar and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Telstar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Telstar's last 28 games and Groningen's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.77
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.03
1.33
Groningen xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Telstar vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Telstar and 1.33 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar's recent record stands at 24W 16D 22L from 62 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 27L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.42 PPG, Groningen on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 15W 9D 7L from their last 31 home games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 7W 5D 19L across their last 31 away games, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.29 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
Telstar (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Telstar
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Telstar vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Telstar and Groningen in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 24W 16D 22L in their last 62 games (1.42 PPG), while Groningen have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Groningen away?
Telstar's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.74 PPG; Groningen away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Groningen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Telstar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Telstar
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Telstar vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Groningen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Telstar have won 0, Groningen have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Telstar and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Telstar 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 61%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Telstar and 52% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Groningen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Telstar vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Telstar and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Telstar's games and 58% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Telstar and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Telstar's matches and 52% of Groningen's.
Do Telstar and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Telstar's recent matches and 71% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Telstar 0-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.69 xG and Groningen 1.33 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.01 / defence 1.07 against Groningen attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 45% | Draw 26% | Groningen 29%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 63%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.42 PPG, Groningen 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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