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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Telstar 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Telstar 1-2 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.15 xG and Feyenoord 2.96 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against Feyenoord attack 1.48 / defence 0.76, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 12% | Draw 14% | Feyenoord 74%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Feyenoord 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Feyenoord's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights