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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Telstar 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Telstar 2-3 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.48 xG and Ajax 2.32 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.90 / defence 1.30 against Ajax attack 1.29 / defence 1.00, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 20% | Ajax 56%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 61%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights