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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.49 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.32 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 30% | Draw 30% | PSV Eindhoven 40%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 44%, PSV Eindhoven 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights