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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.68 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.25 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.99 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 47% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 29%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 49%, PEC Zwolle 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.19 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights