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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NEC Nijmegen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat NEC Nijmegen 2-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Draw 30% | NEC Nijmegen 27%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 50%, NEC Nijmegen 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights