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Dominant Heerenveen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heerenveen beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-3 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.45 xG and Heerenveen 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Heerenveen outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Heerenveen attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 40% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 35%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Heerenveen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, Heerenveen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Heerenveen's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG, Heerenveen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights