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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 14 Dec 2025

11:15

Venue

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sparta Rotterdam Win

40%

Sparta Rotterdam

2.53

25%

Draw

3.96

35%

Heerenveen

2.84

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

8.8%

Home win

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.45

Sparta Rotterdam xG

Total xG

2.80

1.35

Heerenveen xG

40%
25%
35%
Sparta RotterdamDrawHeerenveen

2.53

40%

Home win

3.96

25%

Draw

2.84

35%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.31

Clean Sheet

26%

Sparta Rotterdam

3.87

23%

Heerenveen

4.26

Win to Nil

10%

Sparta Rotterdam

9.77

8%

Heerenveen

12.11

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 8.2 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 8.8 11.9 8.0 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 6.4 8.6 5.8 2.6 0.9 0.2
3 3.1 4.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.450
λ Away (xG) 1.353
Total xG 2.803
League avg home goals 1.720
League avg away goals 1.419
Sparta Rotterdam attack strength 0.788
Sparta Rotterdam defence strength 1.069
Heerenveen attack strength 0.892
Heerenveen defence strength 1.071
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49