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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.79 xG and Heerenveen 0.90 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Heerenveen attack 0.76 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 58% | Draw 24% | Heerenveen 18%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 48%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 PPG, Heerenveen 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights