🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Excelsior beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.50 xG and Excelsior 1.31 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.99 against Excelsior attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 38% | Draw 32% | Excelsior 30%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, Excelsior 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG, Excelsior 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights