🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.93 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 0.72, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 23% | Draw 22% | AZ Alkmaar 55%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 48%, AZ Alkmaar 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights