🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam and Ajax finished level at 3-3 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.35 xG and Ajax 2.12 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajax outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.87 / defence 1.43 against Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 21% | Ajax 55%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 49%, Ajax 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights