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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.10 xG and Ajax 2.08 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.72 / defence 1.28 against Ajax attack 1.28 / defence 0.89, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 19% | Draw 21% | Ajax 60%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Ajax 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajax's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights