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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 6-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 1.86 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 50% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 23%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 85%, Sparta Rotterdam 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.24 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights