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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 6-1 hammering of PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 6-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.45 xG, a combined 5.05. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.50 / defence 1.21 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.93 / defence 1.42, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 76% | Draw 14% | PEC Zwolle 10%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 88%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 74% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 84%, PEC Zwolle 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.19 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights