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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Heracles 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heracles 4-3 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.99 xG and Heracles 1.10 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.40 / defence 1.00 against Heracles attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | Heracles 11%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 82%, Heracles 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights