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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out Heerenveen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 2-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and Heerenveen 1.02 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.44 / defence 0.94 against Heerenveen attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 77% | Draw 14% | Heerenveen 9%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 77%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 76%, Heerenveen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Heerenveen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights