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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Groningen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Groningen 4-2 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.60 xG and Groningen 1.04 xG, a combined 4.64. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.62 / defence 0.92 against Groningen attack 0.88 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 83% | Draw 11% | Groningen 6%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 83%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, Groningen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights