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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Fortuna Sittard 5-2 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.32 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.29 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 61% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 20%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 84%, Fortuna Sittard 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights