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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Fortuna Sittard 4-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.22 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.11 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.42 / defence 0.92 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 62% | Draw 21% | Fortuna Sittard 17%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 77%, Fortuna Sittard 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.16 average — above their attacking norm. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights