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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.13 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.41 / defence 1.09 against FC Volendam attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 75% | Draw 14% | FC Volendam 11%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, FC Volendam 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights