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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Excelsior.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 5-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.92 xG and Excelsior 1.43 xG, a combined 4.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.47 / defence 1.16 against Excelsior attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 68% | Draw 16% | Excelsior 16%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 82%, Excelsior 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.17 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights