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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out AZ Alkmaar 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.63 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG, a combined 3.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.53 / defence 1.01 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 66% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 16%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 85%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was vindicated by the result. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights