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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven and Ajax share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as PSV Eindhoven and Ajax drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.26 xG and Ajax 1.52 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.48 / defence 1.08 against Ajax attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 54% | Draw 20% | Ajax 26%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 82%, Ajax 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PSV Eindhoven 2.33 PPG, Ajax 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights