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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajax cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PSV Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat PSV Eindhoven 0-2 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 1.38 xG and Ajax 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.39 / defence 0.92 against Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 0.63, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 77%, Ajax 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Ajax's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights