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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Waalwijk 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.63 xG and Waalwijk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 45% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 31%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 54%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Waalwijk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.05 PPG, Waalwijk 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights