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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle and Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as PEC Zwolle and Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG and Utrecht 1.56 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Utrecht attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 28% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 46%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, Utrecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights