PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Utrecht meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Utrecht have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.60 for Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PEC Zwolle lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 61% and Utrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 57% | Utrecht 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG and Utrecht 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.874 / defence 0.919 | Utrecht attack 1.276 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.329. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 PEC Zwolle games / 54 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 28% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 46%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 2.17. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Utrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 28% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.16 / Utrecht 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.874 / def 0.919 | Utrecht attack 1.276 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Utrecht xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
PEC Zwolle 3 - 3 Utrecht.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 28% chance of winning, Utrecht a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 1 | Utrecht 3W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.87x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.28x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.87
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.72
1.56
Utrecht xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
16.97
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.56 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 15W 14D 25L from 54 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 12L across 54 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 10W 3D 13L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 12W 9D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.67 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Utrecht in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 15W 14D 25L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 26W 16D 12L in their last 54 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.27 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
4
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Utrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 58%, Utrecht 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PEC Zwolle) and 54% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of PEC Zwolle's games and 65% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 54% of Utrecht's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Utrecht tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Utrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 21, as PEC Zwolle and Utrecht drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG and Utrecht 1.56 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.87 / defence 0.92 against Utrecht attack 1.28 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 28% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 46%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, Utrecht 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.