🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 0-4 hammering of PEC Zwolle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 0-4 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.04 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.00 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.67 / defence 0.94 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.50 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 19% | Draw 21% | PSV Eindhoven 60%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 44%, PSV Eindhoven 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights