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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out NAC Breda 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.66 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 51%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.16 PPG, NAC Breda 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights