PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PEC Zwolle face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, PEC Zwolle have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, NAC Breda have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for PEC Zwolle, 1.00 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended PEC Zwolle 2–2 NAC Breda — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 62% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 51% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.881 / defence 0.879 | NAC Breda attack 0.659 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.352. NAC Breda's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 61 games and NAC Breda's last 61.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.63 | Draw 4.08 | NAC Breda 6.99. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (61%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 60% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.83 / NAC Breda 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.881 / def 0.879 | NAC Breda attack 0.659 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.78
NAC Breda xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 61% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.66x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 61 games and NAC Breda's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.08
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.62
0.78
NAC Breda xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
2%
43.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.78 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 20D 24L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 0.92 PPG from 61 outings (13W 17D 31L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 0.92 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 13W 7D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 0.53 points per game from their last 30 away games (3W 7D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.02 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 17D 31L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NAC Breda away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.53 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda, the earliest from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 4, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: PEC Zwolle 2-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, NAC Breda 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PEC Zwolle) and 57% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 43% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 57% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 77% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out NAC Breda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat NAC Breda 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG and NAC Breda 0.78 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.66 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 14%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 51%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.16 PPG, NAC Breda 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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