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Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Heerenveen 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Heerenveen 2-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.30 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Heerenveen attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 38% | Draw 27% | Heerenveen 36%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 49%, Heerenveen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.15 PPG, Heerenveen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights