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PEC Zwolle and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at IJsseldelta Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as PEC Zwolle and Groningen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.56 xG and Groningen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Groningen attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 47% | Draw 27% | Groningen 26%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Groningen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG, Groningen 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights