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PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Groningen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Groningen 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.90 xG and Groningen 0.83 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Groningen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Groningen attack 0.71 / defence 1.38, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 61% | Draw 24% | Groningen 14%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 55%, Groningen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Groningen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights