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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Volendam beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 2.25 xG and FC Volendam 0.61 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Volendam outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against FC Volendam attack 0.49 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 75% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 9%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 53%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC Volendam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights