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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle and Excelsior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle and Excelsior finished level at 2-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG and Excelsior 0.95 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Excelsior attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 31% | Excelsior 20%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 52%, Excelsior 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG, Excelsior 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights