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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AZ Alkmaar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.40 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 34%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 50%, AZ Alkmaar 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights