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Stalemate at PEC Zwolle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as PEC Zwolle and Ajax drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.78 xG and Ajax 1.69 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ajax landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Ajax attack 1.24 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 41% | Draw 23% | Ajax 37%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 53%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights