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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out PEC Zwolle 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.99 xG and Ajax 1.56 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Ajax attack 1.17 / defence 0.64, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 26% | Ajax 50%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, Ajax 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights